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Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature. But such declines should be put in perspective. Nobody is suggesting climate change won’t negatively impact crop yields. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need, and scientific bodies predict increases in that share, not declines. What about claims of crop failure, famine, and mass death? That’s science fiction, not science. Technology has improved a bit since then. But the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago. You might object that Netherlands is rich while Bangladesh is poor. Does that sound apocalyptic or even “unmanageable”?Ĭonsider that one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and some areas are seven meters below sea level. What about sea level rise? IPCC estimates sea level could rise two feet (0.6 meters) by 2100. And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled. In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. That last part may be true, but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931. Ocasio-Cortez for saying the world would end in 12 years, her spokesperson said "We can quibble about the phraseology, whether it's existential or cataclysmic.” He added, “We're seeing lots of problems that are already impacting lives." Last January, after climate scientists criticized Rep. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential.” Earlier this year, researchers found that climate “has affected organized armed conflict within countries. It’s that climate change is outweighed by other factors. What about “mass migration”? “The majority of resultant population movements tend to occur within the borders of affected countries," says IPCC. There are wildfires in Indonesia, the Amazon rainforest, Siberia, the Arctic,” she said.īut in saying so, the XR spokesperson had grossly misrepresented the science. “There is robust evidence of disasters displacing people worldwide,” notes IPCC, “but limited evidence that climate change or sea-level rise is the direct cause” “Mass migration around the world already taking place due to prolonged drought in countries, particularly in South Asia.
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“I looked through IPCC reports and see no reference to billions of people going to die, or children in 20 years. “But most scientists don’t agree with this,” said Neil. But the overall issue is that these deaths are going to happen.” “There are some scientists who are agreeing and some who are saying it’s not true. “These claims have been disputed, admittedly,” she said. “‘Our children are going to die in the next 10 to 20 years.’ What’s the scientific basis for these claims?” BBC’s Andrew Neil asked a visibly uncomfortable XR spokesperson last month. With that out of the way, let’s look whether the science supports what’s being said.įirst, no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species. I feel the need to say this up-front because I want the issues I’m about to raise to be taken seriously and not dismissed by those who label as “climate deniers” or “climate delayers” anyone who pushes back against exaggeration. And exaggerating climate change risks distracting us from other important issues including ones we might have more near-term control over. There is good evidence that the catastrophist framing of climate change is self-defeating because it alienates and polarizes many people. Journalists and activists alike have an obligation to describe environmental problems honestly and accurately, even if they fear doing so will reduce their news value or salience with the public.
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